劃重點(diǎn)
01YC創(chuàng)始人Paul Graham預(yù)測(cè)，在未來(lái)20年內(nèi)，真正會(huì)寫(xiě)作的人將大幅減少，寫(xiě)作將成為精英技能。
02由于AI技術(shù)的出現(xiàn)，寫(xiě)作壓力得到緩解，寫(xiě)作能力不再是必需的技能。
03然而，寫(xiě)作在許多工作中仍具有重要意義，AI無(wú)法完全替代人類(lèi)的寫(xiě)作能力。
04未來(lái)世界將分為寫(xiě)作者和非寫(xiě)作者，這種分化可能導(dǎo)致思考能力的加速分化。
05Paul Graham強(qiáng)調(diào)，寫(xiě)作即思考，選擇成為會(huì)寫(xiě)作的人將更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。
以上內(nèi)容由騰訊混元大模型生成，僅供參考
YC 創(chuàng)始人 Paul Graham最新預(yù)測(cè)：
在未來(lái) 20 年內(nèi), 真正會(huì)寫(xiě)作的人將大幅減少。這不僅僅是寫(xiě)作能力的消失, 更是思維能力的分化, AI 技術(shù)的出現(xiàn)將創(chuàng)造一個(gè)"會(huì)寫(xiě)作者"和"不會(huì)寫(xiě)作者"的分化世界
我們需要認(rèn)識(shí)到寫(xiě)作不僅僅是一種技能, 而是思維和認(rèn)知發(fā)展的重要工具
在 AI 時(shí)代, 主動(dòng)選擇保持寫(xiě)作能力變得更加重要
這種選擇實(shí)際上是在決定要做一個(gè)"能思考的人"還是"依賴(lài) AI 思考的人"
預(yù)測(cè)全文，
2024年10月，Paul Graham：寫(xiě)作與非寫(xiě)作
Paul Graham，美國(guó)程序員、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家、博客作者和技術(shù)作家。他以L(fǎng)isp方面的工作而知名，也是最早的Web應(yīng)用Viaweb的創(chuàng)辦者之一，后來(lái)被雅虎以美金5千萬(wàn)余元收購(gòu)，成為Yahoo! Store。共同創(chuàng)辦了當(dāng)今世界最具影響力之一的創(chuàng)業(yè)加速器和種子資本公司Y Combinator
我通常不喜歡對(duì)技術(shù)做出預(yù)測(cè)，但對(duì)于這個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)，我感到頗為有把握：再過(guò)幾十年，會(huì)寫(xiě)作的人恐怕不多了
如果你是一位作家，你會(huì)學(xué)到一件非常奇怪的事情：有多少人對(duì)寫(xiě)作感到困難。醫(yī)生知道有多少人對(duì)自己的一顆痣感到擔(dān)憂(yōu)；擅長(zhǎng)設(shè)置電腦的人知道有多少人不會(huì)使用電腦；而作家則知道有多少人需要寫(xiě)作方面的幫助
寫(xiě)作之所以讓這么多人感到棘手，是因?yàn)樗举|(zhì)上就是一項(xiàng)困難的任務(wù)。要寫(xiě)好，必須清晰地思考，而清晰的思考本身就很難
然而，寫(xiě)作在許多工作中無(wú)處不在，而且越是體面的工作，往往越需要寫(xiě)作
這兩種強(qiáng)大的對(duì)立力量普遍的寫(xiě)作要求和寫(xiě)作本身難以降低的困難制造了巨大的壓力。這也是為什么一些知名教授往往會(huì)選擇剽竊。在這些案例中，最讓我震驚的是這些剽竊行為的瑣碎性。他們竊取的通常是最普通的套話(huà)內(nèi)容那些寫(xiě)作水平稍微合格的人幾乎不費(fèi)吹灰之力就可以寫(xiě)出來(lái)的東西。這意味著他們甚至連稍微合格的寫(xiě)作能力都沒(méi)有
直到最近，人們才沒(méi)有應(yīng)對(duì)這些對(duì)立力量所帶來(lái)的壓力的便捷方式。你可以像肯尼迪那樣付錢(qián)讓別人替你寫(xiě)，或者像馬丁路德金那樣剽竊，但如果既不能購(gòu)買(mǎi)也無(wú)法竊取文字，你就得自己寫(xiě)。因此，幾乎每一個(gè)被要求寫(xiě)作的人都必須學(xué)會(huì)如何寫(xiě)作
但現(xiàn)在情況不再是這樣了。AI 打破了這個(gè)世界的界限。幾乎所有的寫(xiě)作壓力都已消失。在學(xué)校和工作中，你可以讓 AI 替你完成寫(xiě)作
這種結(jié)果將會(huì)帶來(lái)一個(gè)分裂的世界：有寫(xiě)作能力的人和沒(méi)有寫(xiě)作能力的人。依然會(huì)有一些人會(huì)寫(xiě)作，因?yàn)橛行┤讼矚g寫(xiě)作。但是在擅長(zhǎng)寫(xiě)作的人和完全不會(huì)寫(xiě)作的人之間的中間層將會(huì)消失。未來(lái)將不再是好作家、普通作家和不會(huì)寫(xiě)作的人，而是只有好作家和不會(huì)寫(xiě)作的人
這真的有那么糟糕嗎？當(dāng)技術(shù)讓某種技能變得過(guò)時(shí)時(shí)，這種技能消失不是很常見(jiàn)嗎？如今的鐵匠并不多見(jiàn)，但這似乎也不是個(gè)問(wèn)題
是的，這很糟糕。原因是我之前提到的：寫(xiě)作即思考。實(shí)際上，有一種思考只能通過(guò)寫(xiě)作來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。你很難比 Leslie Lamport 更好地闡明這一點(diǎn)：
如果你在不寫(xiě)的情況下思考，你只是以為自己在思考
因此，一個(gè)被分成寫(xiě)作者和非寫(xiě)作者的世界比聽(tīng)起來(lái)更危險(xiǎn)。它將是一個(gè)“思考者”和“不思考者”的世界。我知道我想屬于哪一半，我相信你也知道你想屬于哪一半
這種情況并非史無(wú)前例。在工業(yè)化之前，大多數(shù)人的工作讓他們變得強(qiáng)壯�，F(xiàn)在，如果你想強(qiáng)壯，你需要鍛煉。因此，依然有強(qiáng)壯的人，但只有那些選擇變得強(qiáng)壯的人
寫(xiě)作也將如此。依然會(huì)有聰明的人，但只有那些選擇變得聰明的人
英文，
Writes and Write-Nots
October 2024
I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.
One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.
The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.
Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.
Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.
Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did: If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking. So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
https://paulgraham.com/writes.html
